2025 Slate Index Power Ratings

202620252024

Ratings are reflective of each team’s predicted performance against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

SIR (Slate Index Rating):: The predicted point margin this team would produce against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field. This is the primary power rating in The Slate Index.
SCORE (Score Rating):: How many points above or below the FBS average (28.3) this team’s offense is projected to score against an average defense on a neutral field. A positive Score means the offense scores above average; negative means below. Used directly in game score predictions.
DEFEND (Defend Rating):: How many points above or below the FBS average this team’s defense allows against an average offense on a neutral field. A negative Defend means the defense holds opponents below average — lower is better. Used directly in game score predictions.
SOS (Strength of Schedule):: The average SIR rating of this team’s FBS opponents across the full schedule, adjusted for home and away games. Higher means a tougher schedule.

Rankings vs. Public Models

Point Margin Error

Closest predicted point margin to the final score among all 50 models

Percent Correct

Picking the right winner in every game

#14

Against the Spread

Predicting vs. the market line

Source: thepredictiontracker.com · Results based on all regular season + bowl games.

Model Performance

Spread (Margin)

Record363-343709 games

SI Win %51.4%vs. market

SI Avg Error11.97 ptsmean abs error

Mkt Avg Error11.82 pts

Winner Accuracy73.3%favored team won

Totals (Over/Under)

Record406-4011 push, 808 games

SI Win %50.2%vs. market

SI Avg Error12.95 ptsvs. actual total

Mkt Avg Error12.56 pts

Final Rankings — 2025 Season

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RK ⇅	TEAM ⇅	REC ⇅	SIR ▼	SCORE ⇅	DEFEND ⇅	SOS ⇅
1	Indiana↓2.6	(16-0)	35.2	—#	—#	12.2#7
2	Notre Dame	(10-2)	29.8	—#	—#	6.2#44
3	Ohio State	(12-2)	29.1	—#	—#	11.6#12
4	Oregon	(13-2)	28.3	—#	—#	12.5#4
5	Texas Tech	(12-2)	28.3	—#	—#	5.2#53
6	Miami↑2.6	(13-3)	28.0	—#	—#	11.8#9
7	Ole Miss	(13-2)	22.1	—#	—#	9.5#21
8	Georgia	(12-2)	22.0	—#	—#	9.3#23
9	Texas	(10-3)	20.9	—#	—#	6.5#43
11	Texas A&M	(11-2)	20.7	—#	—#	12.1#8
10	Utah	(11-2)	20.7	—#	—#	3.8#61
12	Vanderbilt	(10-3)	19.8	—#	—#	8.0#32
13	Iowa	(9-4)	18.9	—#	—#	8.5#25
14	Penn State	(7-6)	18.3	—#	—#	9.7#18
15	Washington	(9-4)	18.0	—#	—#	5.6#49
16	Alabama	(11-4)	16.8	—#	—#	12.9#2
17	SMU	(9-4)	15.2	—#	—#	4.1#59
18	Oklahoma	(10-3)	15.1	—#	—#	10.2#17
19	Clemson	(7-6)	15.0	—#	—#	4.9#56
20	USC	(9-4)	14.7	—#	—#	7.7#34
21	James Madison	(12-2)	12.9	—#	—#	-4.9#89
22	Tennessee	(8-5)	12.8	—#	—#	5.4#52
23	Missouri	(8-5)	12.7	—#	—#	7.0#39
24	Michigan	(9-4)	12.4	—#	—#	6.9#40
25	Arizona	(9-4)	12.2	—#	—#	4.1#58
26	Auburn	(5-7)	11.8	—#	—#	8.0#30
27	South Carolina	(4-8)	11.8	—#	—#	11.0#13
28	TCU	(9-4)	11.8	—#	—#	5.0#55
29	BYU	(12-2)	11.5	—#	—#	8.2#28
30	Illinois	(9-4)	10.8	—#	—#	10.7#15
31	Louisville	(9-4)	10.8	—#	—#	7.0#37
32	Virginia	(11-3)	10.7	—#	—#	2.6#64
33	Florida	(4-8)	9.9	—#	—#	14.3#1
34	Houston	(10-3)	9.0	—#	—#	1.4#66
35	Duke	(9-5)	8.9	—#	—#	3.4#62
36	Navy	(11-2)	8.7	—#	—#	-3.7#82
37	Kansas State	(6-6)	8.2	—#	—#	7.6#35
38	Georgia Tech	(9-4)	7.9	—#	—#	3.4#63
39	South Florida	(9-4)	7.6	—#	—#	-0.7#74
40	Old Dominion	(10-3)	7.5	—#	—#	-5.5#93
41	Florida State	(5-7)	7.3	—#	—#	7.0#38
42	Arkansas	(2-10)	7.3	—#	—#	11.8#10
43	Iowa State	(8-4)	7.2	—#	—#	4.4#57
44	NC State	(8-5)	7.2	—#	—#	8.4#26
45	LSU	(7-6)	7.2	—#	—#	10.9#14
46	Kansas	(5-7)	6.6	—#	—#	7.2#36
47	Toledo	(8-5)	6.6	—#	—#	-9.1#119
48	North Texas	(12-2)	6.6	—#	—#	-4.2#87
49	Pittsburgh	(8-5)	6.3	—#	—#	5.1#54
50	Northwestern	(7-6)	5.7	—#	—#	5.5#51
51	Wisconsin	(4-8)	5.3	—#	—#	12.2#6
52	Arizona State	(8-5)	5.1	—#	—#	8.2#29
53	Wake Forest	(9-4)	4.8	—#	—#	1.1#68
54	Tulane	(11-3)	4.1	—#	—#	0.0#71
55	East Carolina	(9-4)	3.9	—#	—#	-3.8#83
56	Nebraska	(7-6)	3.8	—#	—#	5.8#48
57	Kentucky	(5-7)	3.3	—#	—#	12.4#5
58	Michigan State	(4-8)	3.3	—#	—#	9.1#24
59	Boise State	(9-5)	2.8	—#	—#	-1.5#75
60	Minnesota	(8-5)	2.7	—#	—#	6.5#41
61	Baylor	(5-7)	2.6	—#	—#	8.0#33
62	Mississippi State	(5-8)	2.5	—#	—#	9.5#19
63	Army	(7-6)	2.3	—#	—#	-4.0#85
64	Washington State	(7-6)	2.3	—#	—#	0.7#69
65	Rutgers	(5-7)	2.1	—#	—#	9.5#20
66	UTSA	(7-6)	1.9	—#	—#	-3.1#79
67	Western Michigan	(10-4)	1.6	—#	—#	-8.1#110
68	San Diego State	(9-4)	0.2	—#	—#	-6.2#96
69	UCF	(5-7)	0.2	—#	—#	4.0#60
70	Texas State	(7-6)	0.1	—#	—#	-8.6#115
71	New Mexico	(9-4)	-1.1	—#	—#	-6.2#95
72	UCLA	(3-9)	-1.4	—#	—#	11.7#11
73	California	(7-6)	-1.6	—#	—#	0.7#70
74	Fresno State	(9-4)	-1.7	—#	—#	-7.5#105
75	West Virginia	(4-8)	-1.8	—#	—#	8.0#31
76	Cincinnati	(7-6)	-1.8	—#	—#	6.0#46
77	UNLV	(10-4)	-2.3	—#	—#	-8.3#112
78	Hawai'i	(9-4)	-2.6	—#	—#	-6.8#100
79	Virginia Tech	(3-9)	-3.0	—#	—#	10.7#16
80	Memphis	(8-5)	-3.3	—#	—#	-5.2#92
81	Boston College	(2-10)	-3.5	—#	—#	5.9#47
82	Colorado	(3-9)	-3.7	—#	—#	6.1#45
83	Stanford	(4-8)	-3.8	—#	—#	6.5#42
84	Utah State	(6-7)	-4.1	—#	—#	-2.0#77
85	Ohio	(9-4)	-4.9	—#	—#	-8.9#118
86	Maryland	(4-8)	-5.4	—#	—#	5.5#50
87	Purdue	(2-10)	-6.0	—#	—#	12.8#3
88	North Carolina	(4-8)	-6.3	—#	—#	1.6#65
89	Georgia Southern	(7-6)	-6.8	—#	—#	-7.2#103
90	UConn	(9-4)	-7.3	—#	—#	-11.3#130
91	Western Kentucky	(9-4)	-7.4	—#	—#	-11.3#131
92	Jacksonville State	(9-5)	-7.6	—#	—#	-12.4#134
93	Oklahoma State	(1-11)	-7.8	—#	—#	8.2#27
94	Kennesaw State	(10-4)	-8.7	—#	—#	-7.5#106
95	Miami (OH)	(7-7)	-8.8	—#	—#	-7.0#101
96	Louisiana Tech	(8-5)	-9.0	—#	—#	-12.1#133
97	Air Force	(4-8)	-9.3	—#	—#	-5.0#90
98	Arkansas State	(7-6)	-9.9	—#	—#	-8.2#111
99	Marshall	(5-7)	-10.1	—#	—#	-6.1#94
100	Central Michigan	(7-6)	-10.7	—#	—#	-10.0#125
101	Troy	(8-6)	-10.8	—#	—#	-6.5#99
102	Temple	(5-7)	-11.2	—#	—#	-2.1#78
103	Florida International	(7-6)	-11.4	—#	—#	-9.6#123
104	Southern Miss	(7-6)	-11.8	—#	—#	-8.7#117
105	Wyoming	(4-8)	-12.2	—#	—#	-6.3#97
106	Liberty	(4-8)	-12.4	—#	—#	-9.5#121
107	South Alabama	(4-8)	-12.6	—#	—#	-7.3#104
108	Nevada	(3-9)	-12.9	—#	—#	-4.1#86
109	Delaware	(7-6)	-13.0	—#	—#	-11.3#129
110	Tulsa	(4-8)	-13.3	—#	—#	-6.4#98
111	Missouri State	(7-6)	-13.3	—#	—#	-8.7#116
112	Louisiana	(6-7)	-13.4	—#	—#	-8.6#114
113	Syracuse	(3-9)	-13.6	—#	—#	9.4#22
114	Florida Atlantic	(4-8)	-14.3	—#	—#	-5.1#91
115	Oregon State	(2-10)	-15.2	—#	—#	1.4#67
117	UAB	(4-8)	-15.5	—#	—#	-3.9#84
116	Eastern Michigan	(4-8)	-15.5	—#	—#	-9.9#124
118	Buffalo	(5-7)	-15.7	—#	—#	-13.1#135
119	San José State	(3-9)	-17.1	—#	—#	-3.6#81
120	UL Monroe	(3-9)	-17.4	—#	—#	-7.0#102
121	Bowling Green	(4-8)	-17.5	—#	—#	-11.0#127
122	Middle Tennessee	(3-9)	-17.6	—#	—#	-11.8#132
123	Coastal Carolina	(6-7)	-17.8	—#	—#	-4.4#88
124	Kent State	(5-7)	-17.8	—#	—#	-8.4#113
125	Northern Illinois	(3-9)	-17.9	—#	—#	-9.6#122
126	Akron	(5-7)	-18.4	—#	—#	-13.8#136
127	App State	(5-8)	-18.6	—#	—#	-7.8#109
128	Charlotte	(1-11)	-18.7	—#	—#	-0.6#73
129	Georgia State	(1-11)	-19.3	—#	—#	-1.9#76
130	New Mexico State	(4-8)	-19.5	—#	—#	-11.2#128
131	Colorado State	(2-10)	-19.6	—#	—#	-0.1#72
132	Rice	(5-8)	-21.8	—#	—#	-3.2#80
133	UTEP	(2-10)	-22.2	—#	—#	-10.5#126
134	Ball State	(4-8)	-22.4	—#	—#	-7.8#108
135	Sam Houston	(2-10)	-27.9	—#	—#	-9.4#120
136	Massachusetts	(0-12)	-38.5	—#	—#	-7.6#107

136 teams