Methodology
About The Slate Index
How the ratings work and why they predict game outcomes.
What is The Slate Index?
The Slate Index is a college football power rating system built on scoring margin adjusted for strength of schedule. Unlike win-loss records or simple point differentials, it accounts for who you played and where you played them, giving a clearer, more honest picture of how good a team actually is.
The core output is a single number: the Slate Index Rating (SIR), representing the point margin a team would produce against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field. Every team is rated relative to that same average benchmark, making it easy to compare any two programs directly.
Data is sourced from College Football Data. Ratings are recalculated weekly throughout the season.
How My Ratings Work
Every team is broken into three components. Each is expressed as an expected points figure against an average FBS opponent.
The Offensive Rating measures the points contribution per game a team's offense is expected to create against an average FBS defense on a neutral field. Point contribution is evaluated based on drive outcomes, starting field position, and ending field position. The result is then adjusted for strength of schedule.
The Defensive Rating measures how many points per game an average FBS offense would score against this team on a neutral field. A defense earns credit for forcing punts, generating turnovers, and preventing scoring drives. Per-game defensive contribution is adjusted for strength of schedule.
The expected value generated per game by the special teams unit. The unit is rewarded for special teams touchdowns and field goals, but punished for allowing special teams touchdowns and field goals as well.
Slate Index Rating (SIR)
The Slate Index's primary rating. SIR represents the predicted point margin a team would produce against the average FBS team on a neutral field.
Strength of Schedule
SOS is the average SIR of a team's FBS opponents, adjusted for whether games were played at home or away. A positive SOS means the team faced above-average competition.
For example, if Georgia's SOS is +8, their average opponent would beat the typical FBS team by 8 points. Games against FCS opponents are excluded to keep ratings relative among the 136 FBS programs.
The Five Factors
Beyond the top-level rating, The Slate Index tracks five drive-level efficiency metrics, each SOS-adjusted and updated weekly. All five can be viewed on the Five Factors page for both offense and defense.
Percentage of drives ending in a touchdown or field goal. Higher is better on offense.
Percentage of plays gaining 10 or more yards. A measure of explosive play-making ability.
Percentage of drives ending in a turnover or short punt. Lower is better on offense.
Average points scored per red zone drive. Captures red zone execution beyond simple touchdown rate.
Average starting field position per drive. Lower numbers mean better field position for that team.
Limitations
Every rating system has blind spots. Here are The Slate Index's:
Home Field Advantage
A standard 3.0-point HFA is applied uniformly. It does not adjust for stadium atmosphere; a night game in Death Valley is treated identically to a noon kickoff between smaller programs.
FBS vs. FBS Only
Games against FCS opponents are excluded to maintain rating consistency among the 136 FBS teams. Blowouts against FCS teams do not inflate a team's rating.
Scoreboard Only
The model does not account for narrative, momentum, injuries, or "who deserves to be ranked." Ratings are based on scoring dominance and schedule strength alone.
About the Creator
The Slate Index was built by Slate Fluker, who was motivated to create a model that seeks to report ratings from a non-biased perspective. In a time where ratings have significant impacts to playoff bubble teams and seeding, the Slate Index does not consider logos, fan bases, NIL funds, or preconceived notions of how good a team is. Teams are rewarded for actual performance based upon who you beat and how bad you beat them.
Questions, feedback, or want to debate the rankings? Find Slate on X @slate_fluker.
Special thanks to College Football Data for data access, and to Football Study Hall for their research on garbage time in college football.