History

The Slate Index rankings and model performance from past seasons.

2025 Season

Rankings vs. Public Models

📊

The Prediction Tracker — ranked among 50 public computer models, 2025 season.

Point Margin Error

Closest predicted point margin to the final score among all 50 models

Percent Correct

Picking the right winner in every game

#14

Against the Spread

Predicting vs. the market line

Source: thepredictiontracker.com · Results based on all regular season + bowl games.

Model Performance

Spread (Margin)

SI Record

386-422

vs. market, 808 games

SI Win %

47.8%

vs. market margin

SI Avg Dev

12.04 pts

mean absolute error

Mkt Avg Dev

11.82 pts

market mean abs error

Winner Accuracy

73%

favored team won

Totals (Over/Under)

SI Record

406-401

1 push, 808 games

SI Win %

50.2%

vs. market total

SI Avg Dev

12.95 pts

vs. actual total

Mkt Avg Dev

12.56 pts

vs. actual total

SI Record (Spread): Games where The Slate Index margin prediction was closer to the final result than the market spread.

SI Avg Dev: Average absolute difference between the SI predicted margin and the actual final margin.

Winner Accuracy: Percentage of games where the SI model predicted the correct winning team.

SI Record (Totals): Games where the SI total points prediction was closer to the final combined score than the market over/under.

Five Factor Leaders

Offensive Leaders

DER

Vanderbilt

62.6%

Higher is better

Vanderbilt

25.4%

Higher is better

WDR

Ohio State

22.0%

Lower is better

RZE

NC State

5.91

Higher is better

YTG

Texas Tech

63.6

Lower is better

Defensive Leaders

DER

Ohio State

20.3%

Lower is better

Miami

3.8%

Lower is better

WDR

Texas Tech

60.2%

Higher is better

RZE

Ohio State

3.47

Lower is better

YTG

Ohio State

75.1

Higher is better

Final Rankings

⌕

▾

RK ⇅	TEAM ⇅	REC ⇅	SM ▼	OFF ⇅	DEF ⇅	ST ⇅	SOS ⇅
1	Indiana↓2.6	(16-0)	35.2	44.0#1	9.7#4	0.9#114	12.2#7
2	Notre Dame	(10-2)	29.8	42.0#2	12.8#5	0.5#134	6.2#44
3	Ohio State	(12-2)	29.1	36.6#8	8.4#2	0.9#109	11.6#12
4	Oregon	(13-2)	28.3	39.7#4	12.8#6	1.4#66	12.5#4
5	Texas Tech	(12-2)	28.3	34.7#14	8.6#3	2.2#14	5.2#53
6	Miami↑2.6	(13-3)	28.0	34.5#16	8.1#1	1.6#50	11.8#9
7	Ole Miss	(13-2)	22.1	41.0#3	20.8#32	2.0#26	9.5#21
8	Georgia	(12-2)	22.0	35.3#11	14.5#8	1.2#88	9.3#23
9	Texas	(10-3)	20.9	36.5#9	17.5#17	1.8#35	6.5#43
11	Texas A&M	(11-2)	20.7	36.4#10	16.8#12	1.0#99	12.1#8
10	Utah	(11-2)	20.7	39.6#6	19.7#25	0.8#120	3.8#61
12	Vanderbilt	(10-3)	19.8	39.6#5	20.8#31	0.9#111	8.0#32
13	Iowa	(9-4)	18.9	29.8#35	13.4#7	2.5#6	8.5#25
14	Penn State	(7-6)	18.3	33.4#19	16.4#11	1.4#70	9.7#18
15	Washington	(9-4)	18.0	34.6#15	17.3#16	0.7#127	5.6#49
16	Alabama	(11-4)	16.8	32.0#24	16.9#14	1.7#47	12.9#2
17	SMU	(9-4)	15.2	34.2#17	20.3#29	1.3#76	4.1#59
18	Oklahoma	(10-3)	15.1	27.4#50	14.9#9	2.6#4	10.2#17
19	Clemson	(7-6)	15.0	30.2#28	16.9#13	1.7#42	4.9#56
20	USC	(9-4)	14.7	32.6#20	20.1#28	2.2#13	7.7#34
21	James Madison	(12-2)	12.9	32.5#21	21.0#35	1.4#63	-4.9#89
22	Tennessee	(8-5)	12.8	34.7#13	22.9#50	1.0#102	5.4#52
23	Missouri	(8-5)	12.7	27.6#48	15.5#10	0.6#132	7.0#39
24	Michigan	(9-4)	12.4	32.1#22	21.1#37	1.3#73	6.9#40
25	Arizona	(9-4)	12.2	30.1#31	19.5#23	1.6#48	4.1#58
26	Auburn	(5-7)	11.8	29.9#34	19.3#20	1.2#84	8.0#30
27	South Carolina	(4-8)	11.8	27.2#51	16.9#15	1.6#53	11.0#13
28	TCU	(9-4)	11.8	32.0#23	21.6#41	1.3#71	5.0#55
29	BYU	(12-2)	11.5	29.3#37	19.3#21	1.5#59	8.2#28
30	Illinois	(9-4)	10.8	29.0#38	20.9#33	2.7#3	10.7#15
31	Louisville	(9-4)	10.8	28.5#43	19.8#26	2.1#21	7.0#37
32	Virginia	(11-3)	10.7	26.5#58	18.2#19	2.4#10	2.6#64
33	Florida	(4-8)	9.9	28.5#42	20.0#27	1.4#69	14.3#1
34	Houston	(10-3)	9.0	30.1#32	23.0#51	1.9#34	1.4#66
35	Duke	(9-5)	8.9	35.0#12	26.9#70	0.7#125	3.4#62
36	Navy	(11-2)	8.7	29.4#36	21.4#39	0.7#128	-3.7#82
37	Kansas State	(6-6)	8.2	27.8#47	20.7#30	1.2#89	7.6#35
38	Georgia Tech	(9-4)	7.9	30.6#26	24.2#58	1.5#62	3.4#63
39	South Florida	(9-4)	7.6	29.9#33	23.6#55	1.3#74	-0.7#74
40	Old Dominion	(10-3)	7.5	26.4#60	19.7#24	0.8#119	-5.5#93
41	Florida State	(5-7)	7.3	28.9#39	22.6#47	1.0#107	7.0#38
42	Arkansas	(2-10)	7.3	33.5#18	28.3#80	2.1#19	11.8#10
43	Iowa State	(8-4)	7.2	28.8#41	22.7#48	1.1#92	4.4#57
44	NC State	(8-5)	7.2	30.1#29	24.0#57	1.0#103	8.4#26
45	LSU	(7-6)	7.2	25.2#66	20.9#34	2.8#1	10.9#14
46	Kansas	(5-7)	6.6	27.9#46	22.4#46	1.2#86	7.2#36
47	Toledo	(8-5)	6.6	27.1#52	21.5#40	1.1#96	-9.1#119
48	North Texas	(12-2)	6.6	39.1#7	33.5#111	1.0#101	-4.2#87
49	Pittsburgh	(8-5)	6.3	26.4#59	21.9#42	1.8#39	5.1#54
50	Northwestern	(7-6)	5.7	25.3#65	21.1#38	1.5#60	5.5#51
51	Wisconsin	(4-8)	5.3	22.2#83	17.6#18	0.7#126	12.2#6
52	Arizona State	(8-5)	5.1	25.4#64	21.9#43	1.6#49	8.2#29
53	Wake Forest	(9-4)	4.8	27.0#53	24.3#59	2.0#25	1.1#68
54	Tulane	(11-3)	4.1	26.1#62	23.3#53	1.4#65	0.0#71
55	East Carolina	(9-4)	3.9	28.0#44	25.7#65	1.5#54	-3.8#83
56	Nebraska	(7-6)	3.8	27.6#49	24.9#60	1.1#94	5.8#48
57	Kentucky	(5-7)	3.3	25.9#63	23.9#56	1.4#64	12.4#5
58	Michigan State	(4-8)	3.3	26.6#55	25.5#64	2.2#15	9.1#24
59	Boise State	(9-5)	2.8	25.1#68	23.6#54	1.3#81	-1.5#75
60	Minnesota	(8-5)	2.7	25.0#69	23.2#52	0.9#112	6.5#41
61	Baylor	(5-7)	2.6	28.8#40	28.2#79	2.0#24	8.0#33
62	Mississippi State	(5-8)	2.5	30.5#27	30.3#91	2.4#8	9.5#19
63	Army	(7-6)	2.3	19.9#98	19.3#22	1.7#43	-4.0#85
64	Washington State	(7-6)	2.3	23.4#77	22.0#44	0.9#113	0.7#69
65	Rutgers	(5-7)	2.1	30.9#25	30.3#90	1.5#56	9.5#20
66	UTSA	(7-6)	1.9	28.0#45	28.6#83	2.5#5	-3.1#79
67	Western Michigan	(10-4)	1.6	22.4#82	22.1#45	1.3#82	-8.1#110
68	San Diego State	(9-4)	0.2	18.8#106	21.0#36	2.4#9	-6.2#96
69	UCF	(5-7)	0.2	23.3#78	25.3#61	2.2#17	4.0#60
70	Texas State	(7-6)	0.1	30.1#30	31.3#97	1.3#83	-8.6#115
71	New Mexico	(9-4)	-1.1	23.6#76	26.1#66	1.4#68	-6.2#95
72	UCLA	(3-9)	-1.4	23.7#74	27.6#74	2.5#7	11.7#11
73	California	(7-6)	-1.6	26.6#57	29.0#86	0.9#116	0.7#70
74	Fresno State	(9-4)	-1.7	19.1#104	22.7#49	1.9#32	-7.5#105
75	West Virginia	(4-8)	-1.8	24.8#70	27.9#76	1.3#79	8.0#31
76	Cincinnati	(7-6)	-1.8	27.0#54	30.1#89	1.3#77	6.0#46
77	UNLV	(10-4)	-2.3	26.6#56	29.8#88	0.9#110	-8.3#112
78	Hawai'i	(9-4)	-2.6	22.0#85	26.5#69	1.9#31	-6.8#100
79	Virginia Tech	(3-9)	-3.0	24.3#71	28.6#84	1.3#72	10.7#16
80	Memphis	(8-5)	-3.3	24.1#72	28.5#81	1.1#93	-5.2#92
81	Boston College	(2-10)	-3.5	25.2#67	29.7#87	1.0#104	5.9#47
82	Colorado	(3-9)	-3.7	23.3#79	27.8#75	0.8#117	6.1#45
83	Stanford	(4-8)	-3.8	20.6#94	25.3#62	0.9#108	6.5#42
84	Utah State	(6-7)	-4.1	26.2#61	31.4#98	1.1#95	-2.0#77
85	Ohio	(9-4)	-4.9	20.2#96	26.1#67	1.0#98	-8.9#118
86	Maryland	(4-8)	-5.4	21.0#91	28.6#82	2.1#22	5.5#50
87	Purdue	(2-10)	-6.0	22.9#80	30.5#93	1.7#46	12.8#3
88	North Carolina	(4-8)	-6.3	19.5#99	27.5#73	1.8#36	1.6#65
89	Georgia Southern	(7-6)	-6.8	22.8#81	31.5#99	1.9#33	-7.2#103
90	UConn	(9-4)	-7.3	23.9#73	33.2#109	2.1#23	-11.3#130
91	Western Kentucky	(9-4)	-7.4	21.4#88	30.6#94	1.7#41	-11.3#131
92	Jacksonville State	(9-5)	-7.6	19.3#102	28.7#85	1.8#37	-12.4#134
93	Oklahoma State	(1-11)	-7.8	17.4#113	27.3#72	2.2#16	8.2#27
94	Kennesaw State	(10-4)	-8.7	23.7#75	33.1#107	0.8#121	-7.5#106
95	Miami (OH)	(7-7)	-8.8	16.6#117	28.1#78	2.8#2	-7.0#101
96	Louisiana Tech	(8-5)	-9.0	16.0#123	26.1#68	1.2#87	-12.1#133
97	Air Force	(4-8)	-9.3	21.1#90	31.1#96	0.7#124	-5.0#90
98	Arkansas State	(7-6)	-9.9	20.4#95	31.8#101	1.6#52	-8.2#111
99	Marshall	(5-7)	-10.1	18.5#108	30.5#92	1.9#30	-6.1#94
100	Central Michigan	(7-6)	-10.7	15.6#124	28.1#77	1.8#38	-10.0#125
101	Troy	(8-6)	-10.8	15.1#126	26.9#71	1.0#105	-6.5#99
102	Temple	(5-7)	-11.2	21.2#89	33.2#108	0.8#118	-2.1#78
103	Florida International	(7-6)	-11.4	22.1#84	35.5#120	1.9#28	-9.6#123
104	Southern Miss	(7-6)	-11.8	18.9#105	31.7#100	1.0#100	-8.7#117
105	Wyoming	(4-8)	-12.2	12.9#133	25.5#63	0.5#135	-6.3#97
106	Liberty	(4-8)	-12.4	21.9#86	35.6#122	1.3#75	-9.5#121
107	South Alabama	(4-8)	-12.6	21.5#87	35.2#119	1.1#91	-7.3#104
108	Nevada	(3-9)	-12.9	15.5#125	30.7#95	2.3#11	-4.1#86
109	Delaware	(7-6)	-13.0	20.6#93	35.2#118	1.5#58	-11.3#129
110	Tulsa	(4-8)	-13.3	19.9#97	34.3#115	1.1#90	-6.4#98
111	Missouri State	(7-6)	-13.3	19.3#101	34.9#117	2.3#12	-8.7#116
112	Louisiana	(6-7)	-13.4	17.1#114	32.4#103	2.0#27	-8.6#114
113	Syracuse	(3-9)	-13.6	17.6#112	32.7#105	1.5#57	9.4#22
114	Florida Atlantic	(4-8)	-14.3	21.0#92	36.3#123	1.1#97	-5.1#91
115	Oregon State	(2-10)	-15.2	16.1#122	33.0#106	1.7#40	1.4#67
117	UAB	(4-8)	-15.5	19.4#100	36.4#124	1.5#61	-3.9#84
116	Eastern Michigan	(4-8)	-15.5	18.4#109	35.6#121	1.7#45	-9.9#124
118	Buffalo	(5-7)	-15.7	16.4#120	33.3#110	1.3#80	-13.1#135
119	San José State	(3-9)	-17.1	19.2#103	37.6#133	1.3#78	-3.6#81
120	UL Monroe	(3-9)	-17.4	13.8#130	32.0#102	0.7#123	-7.0#102
121	Bowling Green	(4-8)	-17.5	13.1#131	32.5#104	1.9#29	-11.0#127
122	Middle Tennessee	(3-9)	-17.6	18.7#107	37.2#129	0.9#115	-11.8#132
123	Coastal Carolina	(6-7)	-17.8	17.7#111	37.6#132	2.1#20	-4.4#88
124	Kent State	(5-7)	-17.8	18.1#110	37.1#128	1.2#85	-8.4#113
125	Northern Illinois	(3-9)	-17.9	14.6#128	34.0#112	1.5#55	-9.6#122
126	Akron	(5-7)	-18.4	16.3#121	36.8#127	2.2#18	-13.8#136
127	App State	(5-8)	-18.6	16.4#119	36.8#126	1.7#44	-7.8#109
128	Charlotte	(1-11)	-18.7	14.8#127	34.1#113	0.6#131	-0.6#73
129	Georgia State	(1-11)	-19.3	16.6#116	37.4#130	1.4#67	-1.9#76
130	New Mexico State	(4-8)	-19.5	12.9#132	34.1#114	1.6#51	-11.2#128
131	Colorado State	(2-10)	-19.6	16.7#115	36.5#125	0.3#136	-0.1#72
132	Rice	(5-8)	-21.8	12.0#134	34.6#116	0.8#122	-3.2#80
133	UTEP	(2-10)	-22.2	16.5#118	39.3#134	0.5#133	-10.5#126
134	Ball State	(4-8)	-22.4	14.4#129	37.5#131	0.7#129	-7.8#108
135	Sam Houston	(2-10)	-27.9	10.8#135	39.7#135	1.0#106	-9.4#120
136	Massachusetts	(0-12)	-38.5	8.6#136	47.7#136	0.6#130	-7.6#107

136 teams